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In today’s volatile housing market, credit unions are under increasing pressure to grow membership and meet community lending goals all while navigating economic uncertainty. That’s why having a reliable, forward-looking mortgage forecast is a strategic necessity.

At iEmergent, we recently released an analysis that confirms our U.S. purchase mortgage forecasts continue to outperform publicly available forecasts such as those published by Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). For credit unions, this accuracy provides a clearer, more dependable view of where and when mortgage opportunity will emerge. 

Key Forecast Accuracy Highlights

For mission-driven credit unions competing with national banks and independent mortgage companies, early visibility into demand can be the difference between reacting to market shifts and leading through them.

From 2019 through 2024:

• iEmergent achieved a 9.5% mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for "next year’s" forecast, which are projections issued a year in advance.
• For ‘last estimate’ forecasts, or projections released a few months ahead of HMDA’s annual release of actual loan counts, MAPE dropped to 3.9%.

Accuracy has improved even further in recent years. Over the 2022–2024 period:

• "Next year’s" forecasts came in at 8.4% MAPE
• "Last estimate" forecasts reached 1.2% MAPE

Chart 1: Six-year comparison of iEmergent’s "Next Year’s" Forecast Accuracy vs. MBA, Fannie Mae

A Forecasting Model Built for Real-World Lending Decisions

At the core of iEmergent’s approach is our Purchase Mortgage Generation Rate (PMGR), a proprietary metric that captures how frequently a given market produces purchase mortgages.

To capture the complexity of the U.S. mortgage market, PMGR incorporates:

• Homebuyer behavior
• Economic trends
• Decades of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) loan data
• Regulatory changes
• Demographic patterns

When combined with a demand-driven view of the homebuyer pool, this approach produces a highly accurate forecast that includes the number of purchase mortgage loans and dollars that will be originated over the next one to five years.

Learn more about iEmergen'ts mortgage forecast methodology. 

Supporting Growth, Equity, and Community Impact

iEmergent’s forecasting accuracy holds up even when results are segmented by borrower race and ethnicity, supporting credit unions’ efforts to expand access to homeownership.

We also deliver strong refinance forecasting, maintaining error rates in the 2% range even amid heightened market volatility. This level of accuracy gives credit unions an added advantage when managing interest-rate risk and supporting member retention strategies.

To see how iEmergent’s accurate mortgage forecasts and market-level insights can support your credit union’s lending and growth goals, request a demo.