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For credit unions looking ahead, the mortgage market appears poised for renewed energy and fresh opportunity. According to iEmergent’s newly released 2025–2027 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast, originations will climb to $2.27 trillion in 2026, a 13% increase over 2025.

The forecast calls for a rebound in refinance activity as well as modest purchase gains, trends driven by slowing economic growth and easing interest rates. This recovery presents a critical window for credit unions to expand their mortgage presence, serve more members, and capture renewed refinance opportunities.

Key Forecast Highlights

The 2026 outlook reflects a shifting economic landscape that will impact both credit union operations and member financial behavior. As tariff impacts spread, consumer confidence wanes, and the labor market cools, GDP growth is expected to slow further, setting the stage for lower interest rates and a modest housing recovery. Long-term interest rates are expected to rise slightly by the end of 2025 but fall again in 2026 as growth weakens. That drop should spur a rebound in refinances and lift overall mortgage originations.

• 2025: Total mortgage origination volume is forecast to surpass $2 trillion for the first time since 2022, driven by a 48% jump in refinance dollars and 12% in purchase dollar gains, an overall 20% increase from 2024.
  

• 2026: Total mortgage origination volume is projected to reach $2.27 trillion, a 13% increase from 2025. Refinance units are expected to grow 24% as lower rates boost activity, and a 2.3% increase in purchase units will help push total loan count up nearly 10% year-over-year.
  

• 2027: Purchase activity is projected at 4.09 million loans totaling $1.56 trillion, while refinance units are expected to hold steady at 2.37 million, with dollars dipping slightly at $754 billion.

iEmergent 2025-2027 Forecast By Units

From Market Trends to Member Impact

With refinances rebounding and purchase demand stabilizing, now is the time to sharpen data-driven strategies, deepen member engagement, and prepare for future opportunities that next year and beyond will bring.

Growth patterns will vary widely across communities, and understanding those local differences will be key to success. To see those differences clearly, credit unions can pair the national outlook with localized data to identify where demand is likely to rebound first and tailor purchase and refinance strategies to meet members’ needs. 

By understanding the changing needs of their members, credit unions can refine their products, programs, and outreach efforts to better support borrowers at every stage of homeownership. Ultimately, this data-driven approach allows credit unions to play a more active role in supporting community growth and helping more members access affordable home financing.

Contact iEmergent today to learn how iEmergent’s data can help you identify emerging mortgage opportunities in the communities you serve.