The crossroads of 2025 and 2026 are behind us. We are now one week into the new year. The mist hasn't cleared, but we are moving.
In my last post, I outlined the four paths that demand your attention. But knowing the path isn't the same as walking it. The difference between "planning" and "leading" in 2026 will come down to The First Mile—the specific decisions you make in Q1 to secure your footing.
To navigate this first mile, you don't need more general advice. You need to audit your strategy against the cold, hard reality of the market. Here are the three metrics that will define whether you are building a fortress or just patching the dam.
1. The "Retention Risk" Metric: The Silence Before the Storm
The Reality: The average interest rate on agency loans dropped to under 6% in the last couple of months of 2025. Fannie Mae’s latest forecast puts single-family originations at $2.4 Trillion. Crucially, the refinance share is expected to jump to 37%. We’ve been warning that the wave is coming. Now, it’s here.
The Shift: For years, your members were bombarded by trigger leads the moment they applied with you. It was noisy and aggressive. But with the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act taking effect, the trigger lead spigot turns off in March 2026.
The New Threat: Don't mistake this silence for safety. When the "poachers" lose their easy trigger leads, they won't just pack up. They will move upstream. They will target your members before they ever fill out an application. The battleground is shifting from "interception" to "inception."
The Audit: Is your retention strategy proactive? If you are waiting for a member to ask for a payoff quote or apply to defend the relationship, you have already lost. In the post-trigger world, you must use data to identify member intent before the giants do.
2. The "Giant" Metric: Are You Competing or Capitulating?
The Reality: We often talk about "competition" in the abstract. Let’s make it concrete. We recently published a chart that should keep every Credit Union CEO awake at night: UWM alone produced more first-lien, 1-4 unit, closed-end loans in 2024 than the entire credit union sector combined.
The Opportunity: You cannot out-spend the giants. You cannot out-market them on national TV. But you can out-maneuver them on the ground. The giants operate on scale. You operate on specifics. The giants see "volume"; you see "community." Your survival depends on using your data to defend your unique advantages—your local presence, your trust, and your ability to serve the niches the giants ignore.
3. The "Demographic" Metric: The 22 Million Person Opportunity
The Reality: While the giants fight over the same high-FICO refinancing paper, there is a massive, qualified market that most lenders are missing because they are looking at generic data.
->47% are Millennials (Prime homebuying age).
->24% are Gen Z (The rising wave).
That is 5.2 million Gen Z renters who are income-qualified right now.
The Strategy: Stop guessing where the borrowers are. This chart proves that the "affordability crisis" narrative often masks a massive segment of qualified buyers who just need the right guidance.
The Audit: Look at your Q1 marketing plan. Is it speaking to the 5.2 million Gen Z renters who are ready to buy, or is it still using the same language that worked for their parents? The data shows exactly who they are. The only question is if you are ready to serve them.
The Verdict
The "way we've always done it" died in 2025. As you look at your Q1 roadmap, ask yourself: Am I relying on "I think," or am I moving with the certainty of "I know"? The data is there. The path is open.
Walk it.