The latest Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data offers more than a backward-looking view of 2025; it provides one of the clearest signals available of where the mortgage market is heading.
As of mid-2026, many of the dynamics reflected in this data are still shaping today’s environment. The market is stabilizing, but not evenly. Growth is returning in specific segments, refinance activity remains sensitive to rate movements, and affordability constraints continue to weigh on purchase demand.
For credit unions, the data highlights steady performance, smaller average loan sizes, and a more diversified mix of lending activity than other institution types.
Here’s what stands out and why it matters now.
Mortgage Originations
At the national level, mortgage originations reached 6.75 million loans and $2.12 trillion in volume in 2025, up from roughly 6.3 million loans and $1.96 trillion in 2024.
Dollar volume grew faster than loan count, reflecting a continued shift toward larger loan balances. Refinance activity also accounted for a greater share of total volume, rising to 29% from 22% the prior year. This signals that recent growth has been driven more by rate-sensitive opportunities than by a meaningful rebound in purchase demand, a pattern that continues to define the current market.
Credit Union Market Share
Credit unions maintained a consistent share of the market, in line with 2024 levels:
- Loan Units: 14.9%
- Dollar Volume: 9.4%
Loan Size
Average loan sizes increased across the market in 2025, but credit unions’ smaller average loan size reflects a different lending mix than banks and independent mortgage bankers (IMBs).
Average loan size by lender type:
- Credit unions: $198,167
- Banks: $331,131
- IMBs: $336,816
This gap is closely tied to loan purpose. Credit unions maintain a more balanced mix of lending activity, while banks and IMBs are more concentrated in purchase and refinance:
- Purchase: Banks and IMBs account for the lion’s share of purchase lending at 46.49% and 62.44% respectively, compared to 26.21% for credit unions
- Refinance: Credit unions account for 27.3% of refinance activity, between banks at 24.87% and IMBs at 31.4%
- Home improvement: Credit unions have a significantly higher share of home improvement lending at 25.98% versus 15.4% for banks and just 1.69% for IMBs
Loan Type
Credit unions remain heavily concentrated in conforming loans, while banks and IMBs have expanded further into government-backed programs.
|
Credit Unions
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All Lenders Combined
|
|
Conforming
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95.48%
|
75.02%
|
|
FHA
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0.83%
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13.35%
|
|
FSA
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0.05%
|
0.57%
|
|
Jumbo
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1.24%
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2.75%
|
|
VA
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2.41%
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8.3%
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Because FHA and VA programs play an important role in purchase lending, credit unions’ heavy concentration in conforming loans may limit their reach among borrowers who rely on government-backed financing. This includes first-time buyers, younger households, veterans, Black and Hispanic members, and lower-wealth households, where these programs are often essential to accessing homeownership.
Mortgage Applications
In 2025, mortgage applications increased 9%, driven largely by refinance activity. Purchase demand remained relatively flat, reflecting ongoing affordability constraints and limited housing inventory.
These same pressures continue to shape the market today, making application trends a critical indicator of where near-term opportunities exit. Credit union trends closely mirror the broader market.
Application Actions
In 2025, 59.01% of credit union mortgage applications converted into closed loans, a slight improvement from 2024, though still below earlier highs.