A quick glance at economic indicators may tell the casual observer that the United States isn’t doing half bad when meeting its financial goals. The GDP has increased by 1.9% in 2022, and another 2.5% in 2023. Year-over-year inflation – the rate at which consumer prices increase – was 3.1% in January 2023, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times in 2022 and four times in 2023. Although the country occasionally flirted with recession, it wasn’t a serious romance, especially since Americans’ average hourly earnings are 22% higher than before the pandemic.
So why is everything so uncertain, from mortgage rates to housing supply, from borrower capacity to a stable but stagnant prime rate? Why do so many of us feel we need to take out a HELOC just to purchase a Big Mac and fries? Maybe author Charles Dickens said it best:
“It was the best of times; it was the worst of times; it was the age of wisdom; it was the age of foolishness; it was the spring of hope; it was the winter of despair,” and on and on. Dickens may have been talking about the French Revolution, but conditions of uncertainty, concern, and occasional despair also describe the financial services market, particularly regarding mortgage lending.
Where are rates going? What will happen to volume as we head into the summer selling season? Will there be enough homes for sale to help credit unions meet and beat their mortgage loan objectives as we round the season and head into the third quarter? Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst for HousingWire, sees the future more clearly than most. Join him and ACUMA President Peter Benjamin CMB, in the next ACUMA Fast Track webinar June 25 at 1 p.m. Central time as they decipher trends and shed light on mortgage lending’s near and distant future.
So is it the best of times or the worst of times? You may want to prepare for both.