When I look at the Twin Cities housing market, I see two realities at the same time. The region posts strong overall homeownership, steady population growth, and meaningful projected mortgage expansion. Yet it also maintains one of the widest racial homeownership gaps among major metropolitan areas in the country. That tension isn’t just a social statistic; it’s a strategic signal.
The region is home to 3.69 million people and continues to diversify at a rapid pace, with immigration expected to drive much of its long-term population growth. Overall homeownership stands at 70.9%, placing the region among the higher-performing large metropolitan areas in the country. That foundation is reflected in the lending outlook.
In Minneapolis, our 2026 projections call for 82,355 combined purchase and refinance loans, totaling $25.68 billion in volume with an average loan size of $311,798. Looking across a four-year window, the market shows clear growth momentum. Dollar volume for purchase and refinance originations is projected to grow by 58.0% from 2023 to 2027, driven by 30,800 additional loans and relatively stable average loan sizes.
Despite these positive indicators, the market continues to face one of the widest racial homeownership gaps in the nation. Black households trail white households by 46.5 percentage points, a disparity that has persisted for decades and is increasingly impossible to ignore. Housing cost burdens play a significant role in limiting access to homeownership.
These pressures are compounded by a geographic mismatch in lending activity, with mortgage originations increasingly occurring outside the urban core while many minority households remain concentrated closer to the city center.