By Bernard Nossuli, COO, iEmergent
Can you identify the exact neighborhoods that will drive mortgage growth for your credit union over the next year? What about the next three years? Five?
With forecasting, marketing intelligence, and advisory services from ACUMA affiliate member iEmergent, you can do just that. iEmergent leverages all kinds of information—including demographic, economic, housing, and competitor data—to help credit unions locate and engage home-ready, underserved markets. While our analysis certainly takes into account historic and current trends, what sets iEmergent apart is our ability to provide uniquely accurate forecasts that quantify future mortgage opportunities in markets across the United States, all the way down to the census tract level.
The Most Accurate Mortgage Forecast in Existence
Our forecasts show credit unions future mortgage opportunities: not just where loans were last year, but where loans are going to occur this year, next year, and the year after that. For over a decade, iEmergent’s forecasts have predicted mortgage opportunity with a level of accuracy that surpasses even the industry’s most trusted forecasts from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, as verified against Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data.
Unlike forecasts that predict mortgage volume at the national level, iEmergent’s data is incredibly granular, allowing us to calculate expected purchase loan volume in units and dollars for each neighborhood in the United States. For example, our recent forecast of the Memphis market tells us that the core-based statistical area will produce more than 13 thousand purchase loans and more than 3.9 billion dollars in 2024—but that opportunity will not be evenly dispersed across the city. By drilling down deeper, we can identify which census tracts will see the most growth overall and within different demographic communities.
How We Predict Future Mortgage Opportunity
Our proprietary forecasting method is a hybrid of several traditional demand forecast models. Many variables go into our forecasts, but there are two fundamental elements: first, the Purchase Mortgage Generation Rate (PMGR), which is the rate at which an individual market produces purchase mortgages. Second, the Homebuyer Pool: the number of households that are ready, willing, and able to buy a home. By evaluating the relationship between each census tract’s Homebuyer Pool and PMGR, we can apply probability theory to estimate the number of purchase mortgage loans and dollars that will be originated in that market.
How Credit Unions Work with iEmergent
We don’t have to tell you that the current mortgage market is competitive. A good mortgage forecast is like having a crystal ball telling you exactly where you can find current and prospective members who are ready for a loan. Credit unions use iEmergent’s data and the visual mapping tools in our Mortgage Marketsmart platform to:
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Set market-driven goals at the organization, region, branch, and individual loan officer levels
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Determine where to expand
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Decide on branch locations—new and existing
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Optimize sales regions
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Match product mix to market need
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Find which segments are growing and build targeted marketing strategies
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Build relationships in high-growth neighborhoods
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Show originators where hot spots are
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Use data in pitch books to recruits, real estate agents, and builders
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Assess M&A opportunities
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Set program goals (e.g., special purpose credit programs (SPCP), down payment assistance (DPA), etc.)
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Optimize lead generation and marketing spend
To learn more about our proprietary forecasting methodology, read the full-length article iEmergent’s Approach to Mortgage Opportunity Forecasting.